As the current migrant influx continues in Europe, the EU nations are facing an overwhelming security concern while welcoming the war refugees. The newly emerging challenge and threat to the law enforcement agencies in Europe is how to identify and weed out potential members of ISIS who might infiltrate into EU nations disguised as civilians.
The idea of isolating the terrorists from general populace does have a long term strategic advantage and we could benefit from it down the road. First we have to isolate the insurgents/terrorists from the general populace. Let the refugees come out and settle them in other countries thereby showcasing the soft power of EU nations while engaging the source of terrorism by the NATO led hard power strategy which is bombing ISIS targets in Iraq and Syria.
By weeding the insurgents out of legitimate refugees, we can eventually apply Mao Zedong’s theory that “insurgents are like fish in an ocean of people”. By separating the “ocean” of general populace from the insurgent “fish” we will be able to determine the survival of the enemy insurgents/terrorists.
Then there is a question of how should one separate the ocean of population from the insurgent fish?
The answer is simple; if we're able to win the hearts and minds of the general populace they will do the job for you, which is the core strategy of COIN doctrine. Yes, we have to win the hearts and minds of the people. That’s where a great nation’s soft power plays its part. Hard power is vital in order to safe guard a nation’s interest, however, when we confront an enemy of different faces we have to explore other options and tools to combat them by the means of non-military strategies. As Sun Tzu reminded us, the supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting; eliminating the will to fight and destroying the spirit of the enemy’s potential to fight is also paramount. An ideology has to be fought with another set of ideologies, rather than by swords and guns; may it be a religious ideology, ethno-nationalist ideology or secessionist ideology.
It is against this backdrop I pondered and wondered how the law enforcement agencies could prevent terrorists from infiltrating/exfiltrating EU nations and decided to post here a method called “Spotter Force Multiplier Theory” (SFMT), which is a successful tradecraft in human intelligence also known as “Link Analysis”.
So how does it work?